Some COVID, hospitalization and vaccine stats from Australia

Zero hospitalizations, zero ICU admissions from unvaccinated (Australia)

Here's the first chart. Note the data for deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations has an inverse relationship to vaccine doses. The more doses you've had after the initial one or two, the more likely you are to get hospitalized or admitted to ICU or die. What's alarming about this is that, as we'll see in the next chart, the inverse is true for number of doses administered per 100,000K. Note that Australia is almost completely vaccinated via the mRNA type vaccines.

Vaccine doses administered as percentage of population (Australia)

In the following chart, we see the percentage of total population by dose count. Since the normal dosing for the mRNA vaccines is two within 30 days, Australia shows 85% of its population having achieved "fully vaccinated status" 56% have been boosted once and 21% have been boosted twice.

The boosted are at the greatest risk

So now we can do some simple math from the first chart and what we have clearly shows an INVERSE relationship between vaccinations AND hospitalizations, ICU and deaths, especially for those boosted. If the vaccines were working as intended, we should see rates going down as the population becomes more vaccinated. Instead, we see rates greater than expected as vaccination counts go up. This is clearly the case for those having received four doses (2 original + 2 boosters).

Doses	% Pop	% Hospitalizations*	% ICU*	% Deaths*
4+	21%	57%	56%	60%
3	31%	27%	28%	22%
2	43%	15%	16%	10%
1	2%	1.4%	1%	1%
0	3%	0%	0%	7%
	100%	100%	101%	100%
*For known vaccine status (source www.health.nsw.au.gov)

Those with 3 shots are roughly 2x likely to end up the hospital, IC or die from COVID vs those with only 2 shots. Likewise, those with 4+ shots are 4x more likely than those with 2 shots. This is likely somewhat self-selecting (older people and those with comorbidities are more likely to get boosted) but the profound difference in rates may have a lot to do with booster immunity waning quickly and leaving the body less able to fight off new strains or even diseases other than COVID. 

Natural immunity

Finally, we have a compound problem in countries with extremely high vaccination rates (like Australia). There are few people left who have pure natural immunity (contracted COVID but never vaccination). In fact, Australia has pushed vaccines even onto those who had contracted COVID. 

What we likely have, as in the United States, is a large population that received two mRNA shots (perhaps early in year one of the pandemic), have subsequently contracted COVID (probably Omicron) and are now reluctant to get boosted.

Given the results in Australia, that reluctance may be well founded even if not confirmed by direct research. Regardless, we do have data showing that natural immunity from having contracted COVID is AT LEAST as good and probably better than vaccination induced immunity. One study (Effects of Vaccination and Previous Infection on Omicron Infections in Children | NEJM) on children aged 5 - 11 appears to show that vaccinated children had greatly REDUCED immunity 12 weeks after the second shot (down to 20%) versus unvaxed children who had contracted COVID still going relatively strong after the same length of time (55% immunity).

The murky area is what happens to immunity from contracting COVID after having been "fully vaccinated" (two mRNA shots). There doesn't appear to be good data.